Glenmark Prescribed drugs Ltd’s launch of the antiviral Favipiravir, named Fabiflu, has despatched its inventory value hovering. However, at present’s rise of about 30% must be seen within the context of the market potential of the drug and that doesn’t fairly justify the sharp soar.
The drug is priced at ₹103 per pill, whereas Glenmark has the first-mover benefit. However, the income potential of the drug will depend on an infection fee, and the adoption of the drug as a therapy.
“This seems to be a one time alternative just for COVID instances. A number of gamers are set to launch the product over the following 12 months provided that there are not any patents in India,” stated Anshuman Gupta, pharma analyst, Investec Securities.
As such, the income potential is anticipated to lower as soon as competitors kick in. Within the coming months, numerous gamers are anticipated to launch the drug in India. Some producers in India are already exporting this drug to UAE and Nepal.
Incremental revenues of Rs200 crore-300 crore may accrue, say some analysts, though it’s extra of a guesstimate given the various variables. In that backdrop, the over Rs3000 crore soar in Glenmark’s market capitalization clearly appears overdone.
Additionally, research is nonetheless being carried out on the drug’s efficacy for COVID-19 therapy. “The worldwide scientific trials, which served as the idea for the approval, embody small pattern measurement and are from semi-regulated markets reminiscent of Russia, China, and UAE. Japan the place the drug is formally accepted for resistant Flu, has not accepted the drug for COVID indication on account of lack of efficacy knowledge,” stated Kunal Dhamesha, pharma analyst, Systematix Securities.
Moreover, a lot will rely on how efficient the drug is in scientific trials in India. Glenmark has stated that it’ll start a brand new scientific trial in India to check a mix of two anti-viral medicine, favipiravir, and umifenovir, as a possible COVID-19 therapy.
As well as, an excessive capsule burden could also be a deterrent. Sufferers must take about 18 tablets on day one and eight tablets thereafter for as much as 13 days. As such, this makes the general price of the therapy fairly excessive for many Indians. In fact, the federal government may step in as a purchaser, which might additionally decrease the margins on this drug.
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